Friday, October 08, 2004

SurveyUSA screws up.

If you believe the most recent batch of SurveyUSA polls, you'll believe that George Bush is poised to win a greater share of the black vote than any Republican candidate in recent memory.

If you believe the most recent batch of SurveyUSA polls.

These surveys were conducted between October 1st and 5th in 10 states. SurveyUSA also conducted polls of Maine, Nevada, and Washington, but it did not break down Maine by race; the 2000 exit polls did not break down black voter preferences in Nevada or Washington.

Bush polls higher among black voters than his 2000 exit polls in nine states; he polls twice his 2000 exit polls in four states; he polls three times his 2000 exit polls in one state.

Overall, there were 2785 white respondents and 761 black respondents in these 10 polls. These are their preferences, versus what the preferences would be, had they mirrored the 2000 exit poll results for their respective states:

White Black
Bush 55% 56% 16% 9%
Kerry 42% 42% 79% 90%
Other 2% 2% 2% 1%
Undecided 2% 0% 2% 0%

Now, I'm sure I've engaged in some statistical naughtiness here, but if I'm even close to right, either there's been a substantial shift of black voters to Bush, or SurveyUSA is full of crap.

Given that Bush won election by disenfranchising black voters, distinguished his presidency by refusing to speak to black civil rights groups and opposing affirmative action, and seems intent on disenfranchising still more black voters to win re-election, I'm gonna say the latter: SurveyUSA is full of crap.